2016 winter has been to want to win do not venture

Abstract: capital is voting with their feet to escape the sinking ship.


recently had a point of view from VC over there, the effect is that the era of APP entrepreneurship is over".

I forwarded this point in micro-blog, opponents said:

VC is a idiot."

VR/AR/ Internet of things / big data to create the future."

"reflected off /Keep/Faceu/ rather quickly fire."

these words that opponents are products of fancier, rather than professionals. For example, you check the example that several products release date, ranking curve to check again AppStore, their rapid rise is the year in which


according to my statistics, in 2015 the rapid rise of APP more than 16, while the first 7 months of 2016, only 2 new products: A and Prisma (except Mobile Games market). Prsima is doomed to be a gust of wind, and the answer, who can not say how it’s prospects. Market trends from the data, rather than on the fashionable concept of obscenity, even burning incense and praying hero turned out to drive the wheels.

has been to winter.

PC’s Internet growth lasted 12 years based on the mobile terminal based on the growth and continued for 6 years, the Internet penetration rate is so high, ushered in unprecedented prosperity, behind the prosperity of the new products to get the user’s cost is increasing year by year, and the profitability of APP is still weak, PC era "scale in exchange for profits" law to be completely overturned.

no matter how romantic idealists, and ultimately have to face CPA and ARPU is not proportional to the cruel truth. When the CPA high tilt, ARPU remains low, the new product would not have any way out. Even on the scale in exchange for profits "illusions of the fancier, it should face the reality of the prices as high as CPA.

recently heard some hearsay, part of the VC full holiday, no longer see the project; VC began layoffs, and increase the "making investment"; part of 2015 raised angel fund spent hundreds of millions of capital, but also get the new fund-raising; focus on the early stage of the project FA dissolution. Capital is voting with their feet to escape the sinking ship.

we’ll face a long winter. In fact, in 2015 the winter has come, but when hot money hot, crazy VC gold arm forcibly hold the sinking of the market, and even the VC hand the money in one hand, the project plan, out of business lobby in a large company elite. Now the tide is receding, naked on the beach.

no one knows when spring comes.


trend trend, case case. Even if there will be a world of ice and snow, tenacious survive in the harsh environment of the baby.


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